New on Sports Illustrated: 2021 New Orleans Saints Fantasy Team Outlook: Lack of QB Talent, Not Starter Uncertainty, Is the Problem
A fantasy football breakdown of the New Orleans Saints by high-stakes legend Shawn Childs
Coaching
Over the last 15 seasons with Sean Payton as the head coach (suspended in 2012) and Drew Brees at quarterback, the Saints finished first or second in the NFL in offense yards nine times. Payton has a 143-81 record with one Super Bowl title (2009) and nine playoff appearances (8-7). They’ve won 11 or more games in each of the past four years. Payton enters 2021 without Drew Brees, who retired after an excellent career.
New Orleans scored 482 points (5th), 24 points more than 2019 (458). The Saints regressed to 12th in offensive yards gained, which was their fourth season of decline. From 2006 to 2017, they finished in the top five in offensive yards every year except in 2010 (6th).
Pete Carmichael returns for his 12th season as the offensive coordinator. New Orleans added him to their system in 2006 when Payton took over running the team.
The Saints’ defense climbed to fourth in yards allowed while giving up 337 points (5th). The last time New Orleans had a top-five defense came in 2013.
Dennis Allen gets a seventh season with the Saints’ defense. He held the same position for the Broncos in 2011, leading to a head coaching job for the Raiders from 2012 to 2014, where he struggled to have success (8-28). Allen has 18 years of NFL coaching experience.
Free Agency
The Saints lost TE Jared Cook to the Chargers. His catch total in 2019 (43) and 2020 (37) for the Saints didn’t make an impact, but Cook scored 16 touchdowns over 29 games while gaining 15.1 yards per catch. He’ll start the year at age 34.
More New Orleans Saints Coverage from SINew Orleans lost DE Trey Hendrickson, DT Sheldon Rankins, and LB Alex Anzalone to free agency.
Draft
DE Payton Turner
Turner gives the Saints another player with strength and range defending the run on the outside. His game isn’t where it needs to be when attacking the quarterback with power, but he’ll create havoc when flipping to the inside. Turner gets off the ball quickly while not fully developed.
LB Pete Werner
Werner brings an excellent fit to a team with strength on the defensive line. His vision grades well with a foundation to fill holes in a hurry against the run and attacking the quarterback position. He gets in trouble when facing big bodies in traffic. Werner needs to get stronger while adding more pop to his tackles.
CB Paulson Adebo
Adebo opted out of 2020, leaving him as a wild card in their year’s draft class. He projects as a lockdown press cover who gains value as the field shortens. His playmaking style can leave him at risk when playing off the ball and facing a speedy receiver with double moves. His technique in mirroring pass patterns needs work, but his feel for the ball creates an edge, especially against teams with a short passing window. Adebo has questions about his value in run support, which may be helped by patient decision-making.
QB Ian Book
His dual-threat ability falls in line with the recent success of Taysom Hill. He lacks an elite arm with questions with his size (6.0” and 210 Lbs.). Book offers a good feel for the pocket with a chain mover feel when asked to run on RPOs. His accuracy diminishes with the length of throws while needing improvement taking care of the ball under duress.
T Landon Young
Young gets off the ball well after the span while relying on his strength to create wins. His forward lean creates imbalance and missed timed blocks. He battles speed in the pass rush, and jumpers crossing his face can lead to pressure on the quarterback.
WR Kawaan Baker
Baker has the tools to reach a high ceiling once he shows he can win against NFL talent at cornerback. His early quickness and acceleration set the tone for wins with the wheels to turn a short pass into long touchdowns. Baker gets off the line well against press coverage. However, his success falls on the development of his hands.
Want even more fantasy and betting analysis? Become an SI Fantasy PRO member today and start beating the books and winning your leagues with us!
Offensive Line
The Saints climbed to 6th rushing yards (2,265). New Orleans scored 30 touchdowns while gaining (4.6 yards per rush with 14 runs over 20 yards. New Orleans averaged 30.9 rushes compared to 25.3 in 2019.
New Orleans slipped to 20th in the NFL in passing yards (3.945) with 28 touchdowns and eight touchdowns. They only had 44 completions over 20 yards while gaining yards per pass attempt (7.6). Their offensive line allowed 29 sacks.
LT Terron Armstead
Armstead was one of the best players at his position while playing at an elite level again last year in pass protection. His run blocking rebounded while also providing an edge over the league average. Armstead has never had over 1,000 snaps in a season in his career.
LG Andrus Peat
Peat improved to closer to the league average in the run game after two disappointing seasons. His pass protection has been a problem over the past three years despite getting drafted in the first round in 2015.
C Erik McCoy
Over two seasons after getting drafted in the second round, McCoy made 32 starts with success in both run and pass blocking. His game is built on power and strength, allowing McCoy to handle bull rushers. His range is limited, but he does protect his space quickly after the snap. His challenge will come when asked to defend a more significant piece of the field in pass protection.
RG Cesar Ruiz
The Saints expect Ruiz to upgrade their run game thanks to plus strength and the ability to win quickly after the snap. Ruiz uses his hands well, but his range may be limited. His challenge will come vs. power in the pass rush. New Orleans drafted him in the first round in 2020. He didn’t allow a sack last year, but defenders did apply plenty of pressure on the quarterback while showing weakness against the run.
RT Ryan Ramczyk
Ramczyk played well in all four seasons in the NFL after the Saints drafted him in the first round in 2017. Ramczyk is very skilled in the techniques needed to have success at his position while adding athletic ability. He has been an asset in all years in run and pass blocking.
OL Snapshot
New Orleans has a top offensive line, but a change at the quarterback position changes the game flow and passing window. The Saints will run the ball well again while having the same coaching staff who wants to put the ball in the air.
Offense
The Saints ran the ball 48.6 percent of the time in 2020, helped by Taysom Hill (87/457/8) making four starts. Their passing attempts (32.6) fell below the league average for the fourth season.
Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill
In his four starts in 2020, Hill passed for 834 yards and four touchdowns while adding a high floor on the ground (39/209/4). His success led to 102.7 fantasy points (25.68 per game) in four-point passing touchdown leagues, which would have ranked seventh if Hill repeated his success over another 12 contests.
He finished with a high completion rate (72.7) while gaining 7.7 yards per pass attempt. In addition, Hill was active in the run game (87/457/8) even when not playing quarterback.
Fantasy Outlook: New Orleans will rotate two quarterbacks in 2021. Hill played well with Drew Brees out last year, giving him a window to prove he belongs as their number one quarterback. His game management skills added to his value in the run game should play well with the lead, but the Saints should hook him when a game gets out of hand, and New Orleans has to throw. His cloudiness ranks Hill as the 31st quarterback drafted in 12-team leagues in late June. For a fantasy owner looking to play matchups, Hill is a value as a QB3.
Jameis Winston
Over 70 career starts, Winston went 28-42, with his only winning record coming in 2016 (9-7). In 2019, Winston led the NFL in passing yards (5,109) with plenty of touchdowns (33) and attempts (626), but his incredibly high number of interceptions (30 – seventh-highest all-time) keeps his opponents in games too often.
His career completion rate (61.3) is well below the top quarterbacks in the game, but his stats in this area aren’t padded by an active receiver in the passing game at running back.
Fantasy Outlook: In his first season with the Saints, Winston went 7-for-11 with 75 yards and no touchdowns. Winston would be on a path for 5,000 combined yards with over 30 touchdowns if given the keys to run New Orleans' offense for an entire season. On the downside, he could hold a clipboard for a significant portion of the year. Possible wise guy target for a fantasy owner wanting to cheat the quarterback position, and the training camp news slants toward him starting in Week 1.
Ian Book
Book gained 10,466 combined yards over four seasons at Notre Dame with 89 combined touchdowns and 20 interceptions. His best success came in 2019 (3,580 combined yards with 38 touchdowns and six interceptions. Book has a winning resume, but he does need time to develop as a passer.
Other Option: Trevor Siemian
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray combined for 2,520 yards with 20 touchdowns and 106 catches. The running back position gained 25 percent of the Saints’ passing yards while catching over 30 percent of their completions.
Alvin Kamara
Over his four seasons with the Saints, Kamara delivered a high floor in each year (81/826/5, 81/709/4, 81/533/1, and 83/756/5) in the passing game. He’s still looking for his first season over 1,000 yards rushing (career-high in 2020 – 932 yards). Kamara has 43 rushing touchdowns over 60 games. He led the league in running back scoring (378.00) in 2020 in PPR leagues.
Last year, Kamara rushed for over 100 yards in one matchup (22/155) while scoring an incredible six touchdowns. His best success catching the ball came in Week 3 (13/139/2). He scored over 30.00 fantasy points in four contests (38.40, 44.70, 34.80, and 56.20). The Saints gave him 18 touches per game.
Fantasy Outlook: Other than 2019 (six touchdowns), Kamara has consistently delivered yards, touchdowns, and catches. He continues to compete with Latavius Murray for touches, and Taysom Hill could be more of a problem if he wins the starting quarterback job. On the flip side, Kamara has the tools to push even higher if given 325-plus touches, which would require an injury to Murray. He ranks third in the early draft season while offering a 300-point fantasy floor.
Latavius Murray
The Saints gave Murray 349 touches over the past two seasons, which works out to 11.25 per game. He finished 28th and 34th in running back scoring in PPR leagues in 2019 (157.20 fantasy points) and 2020 (136.80 fantasy points). Last year, a healthier Alvin Kamara led to Murray receiving 17 fewer targets and a step back in opportunity in the passing game (23/176/1). He missed Week 17 and most of the postseason with a quad injury.
Murray offered the best fantasy value in Week 4 (83 combined yards with two touchdowns and one catch) and Week 12 (19/124/2 with one catch for two yards). He scored under 10.00 fantasy points 10 times in PPR leagues, making him tough to time in the fantasy market.
Fantasy Outlook: Murray starts the year at age 31 with the resume to receive 150-plus touches off the bench for the Saints. He works as a bridge filler or bye week cover while also owning top 12 running back upside if given a full-time starting job. Murray looks to be easier to handcuff with Kamara based on his late June ADP (144). I won’t fight for him on draft day unless I’m trying to roster both New Orleans’ running backs.
Other Options: Dwayne Washington, Ty Montgomery, Tony Jones, Stevie Scott
Wide Receivers
Much of the wide receiver production for the Saints, with Drew Brees throwing the ball, came close to the line of scrimmage, leading to a higher catch rate (65.4) over the previous three seasons. Their downside comes from regression in their yards per catch (11.35). Injuries to Drew Brees and Michael Thomas led to a sharp decline in wide receiver touchdowns (13 – 20 in 2019) and fade in catches (195 – 219 in 2019) and receiving yards (2,213 – 2,617 in 2019).
Michael Thomas
In 2019, Thomas set the NFL record in catches (149) while scoring almost 100 more fantasy points (375.5) than the 2nd ranked wide receiver (Chris Godwin – 276.1) in PPR leagues.
At the end of Week 1, he suffered a doomed high ankle sprain with minimal time left in the game. His injury led to six missed weeks and two empty starts (5/51 and 2/27 on 13 combined targets). From Week 11 to Week 14, Thomas has posted three playable games (9/104, 9/105, and 8/84) before suffering a hamstring injury.
In the first week of the playoffs, he scored his only touchdown (5/73/1), followed by a zero on four targets against Tampa.
In mid-January, Thomas had shoulder and ankle surgeries.
When at his best from 2017 to 2019, Thomas caught 378 passes for 4,375 yards and 23 touchdowns on 481 targets. His catch rate (78.6) over this span was elite while gaining 11.6 yards per catch. He averaged 7.9 catches for 91 yards and 0.48 touchdowns per game or 20.03 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.
Fantasy Outlook: The questions on who starts at quarterback for the Saints and a down season by Thomas led to him sliding to the third round in PPR leagues in most early drafts in the 12-team high-stakes market. His ADP (31) has a breakaway layup feel. In 2018 and 2019, only six running backs outscored him within each year while ranking second behind Christian McCaffrey in combined fantasy points (857.20 to 693.00).
Thomas had 30 catches for 343 yards on 37 targets over his four starts with Taysom Hill behind center in 2020., Over this stretch, New Orleans passed for 834 yards with 82 completions. Thomas finished with 36.6 percent of the team’s team completions and 41.1 percent of their passing yards in these four games.
At a minimum, the Saints will attempt 34 passes per game, leading to an average of 22.2 completions. Thomas should have a floor of seven catches per game for 80 yards and a score every other week. My easy math comes to 18.00 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. If New Orleans starts Jameis Winston for 17 games, Thomas gets a 10 to 20 percent bump in value.
Tre’Quan Smith
The ceiling of Smith remains a mystery. He has 80 catches for 1,109 yards and 14 touches over 40 career games. Last year, he set a career-high in catches (34), receiving yards (448), and targets (50) while missing three games (including the playoffs) with an ankle injury. Smith averaged under three targets in his three years in the league. His best value came in Week 2 (5/86), Week 13 (3/42/1), and Week 19 (3/85/3).
Fantasy Outlook: Smith has the stats to support much more upside if he can find a way to stay healthy and push his targets to six per game. The fluid dynamics at the quarterback position push him into the deep sleeper category with an ADP of 220. At the very least, Smith has the potential to be a fourth-year breakout with a 60/900/6 type season. His higher ceiling/opportunity comes with Jameis Winston starting.
Kawaan Baker
Over his final three seasons at South Alabama, Baker caught 119 passes for 1,727 yards and 15 touchdowns. He flashed big-play ability in 2018 and 2019 (15.0 and 16.4 yards per catch) while transitioning to a possession guy last season (51/659/8 – 12.9 yards per catch). Baker also has some experience running the ball (92/376/11), highlighted by his success in 2018 (59/251/9).
Fantasy Outlook: I'm intrigued by his scouting report while also understanding Baker needs time to develop. If Drew Brees started in 2021, he might have moved quickly up the Saints’ depth chart. But, for now, only a player to follow over the summer. In my head, my thought is a poor man’s Jarvis Landry with a flavor of Golden Tate with the ball in his hands. New Orleans should try to get him the ball on jet sweeps similarly as the Rams do with Robert Woods.
Marquez Callaway
In his rookie season over 11 games, Callaway caught 21 of his 27 passes for 213 yards with one contest of value (8/75). New Orleans signed him as an undrafted free agent last April. Callaway battled knee and ankle injuries over the second half of 2020.
From 2017 to 2019 at Tennessee, he caught 91 of his 164 targets for 1,633 yards and 13 touchdowns while working as a deep threat (17.9 yards per catch).
Other Options: Deonte Harris, Juwan Johnson, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Jake Lampman
Tight Ends
The tight end catch opportunity in the Saints’ passing game has been about the same over the past three seasons. They receive about 16.5 percent of the team’s completions and close to 20 percent of their passing yards. New Orleans does look for the tight end position in the red zone (20 touchdowns in 2019 and 2020).
Adam Trautman
As the TE2 for the Saints last season, Trautman caught 15 of his 16 targets for 171 yards and one touchdown. His only playable game came in Week 9 (3/39/1).
Over four seasons in Dayton, Trautman caught 178 passes for 2,295 yards and 31 touchdowns. His play improved in 2018 (41/604/9) and 2019 (70/916/14).
Trautman comes to the NFL with a pass-catching skill set. He does some things well in his route running while also having questions with his release and blocking.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on ADP (169), not many fantasy owners fight for Trautman on draft day. He projects as a backend TE2 in PPR leagues with the talent to become a 50/50/5 player in his second year in the league. For someone looking to cheat the tight end position, Trautman is a must-follow this summer as he could very well emerge as the Saints’ third option in the passing game.
Other Options: Nick Vannett, Ethan Wolf, Dylan Soehner
Kicker
Wil Lutz
Over his five seasons with the Saints, Lutz made 86.6 percent of his 164 field goals. His kicks started to fade over the past two years from 50 yards or more (4-for-9), lowering his career percentage to 56.5 percent (13-for-23). Lutz has seven missed extra points in his 260 chances.
In 2020, New Orleans had a five-year high in extra points (58) at the expense of their field-goal tries (28 – averaged 34 from 2016 to 2019). The Saints run the ball well in close, which hurts their scoring in the kicking game.
Fantasy Outlook: Lutz ranked 8th, 4th, 2nd, and 13th in kicker scoring over the last four years. I expect a bounce-back this year. He ranks 12th at the kicker position in the early draft positions, pointing to a value.
Defense
New Orleans remains fourth in rushing yards allowed (1,502) with 11 touchdowns and eight runs over 20 yards. They gave up 3.9 yards per rush, with opponents attempting 24.4 rushers per game.
The Saints jumped to fifth in passing yards allowed (3,472) with 28 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Quarterbacks gained 6.7 yards per pass attempt with 49 completions over 20 yards and nine catches over 40 yards. Their defense finished with 45 sacks.
DT David Onyemata
In his fifth season in New Orleans, Onyemata posted career-highs in tackles (44) and sacks (6.5) while adding an interception and two defended passes. Most of his playing time comes on early downs against the run, where his game tends to shine. However, he does need to improve his tackling.
DE Payton Turner
New Orleans protected their pass rush on the outside by adding Turner in the first round of this year’s draft. His game hasn’t reached its ceiling, so playing behind Cameron Jordan should help his development.
The second defensive tackle position for the Saints is an area of weakness. As a result, they signed multiple undrafted players to add to their already below-bar options.
DE Marcus Davenport
Davenport picked 53 tackles and 11.5 sacks over his first two years in the NFL with success defending the run while playing in 26 games. In 2020, he missed the first four games with an elbow injury, leading to a step back in his stats (21 tackles and 1.5 sacks). Nevertheless, Davenport remains a top player at his position.
DE Cameron Jordan
Jordan has been a top player at his position for five straight seasons. His value vs. the run remains high, but he finished with a fade in his sack production (7.5 – 40 over his previous 48 starts). The Saints drafted Jordan in the first round in 2011.
LB Demario Davis
Davis has over 100 tackles in six of his nine years in the NFL while never missing a game in his career. Over the previous three seasons, he had played at an elite level vs. the run while delivering 13 combined sacks. However, quarterbacks did pick on him in the red zone, leading to too many touchdowns allowed.
LB Pete Werner
The Saints expect Werner to move into the starting lineup after getting drafted in the second round in 2021. His style of play should excel on the right side of New Orleans defense.
The strongside linebacker position for the Saints needs an upgrade via a late signing. All current options have minimal resumes while lacking top-tier draft pedigree.
CB Marshon Lattimore
The theory of Lattimore being a top coverage cornerback left the building in his rookie season. He held receivers to a reasonable catch rate over the past two years, but Lattimore allowed too many big plays, and touchdowns were a problem in 2020.
CB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
New Orleans shifted Gardner-Johnson to slot cornerback in 2020 after seeing action at safety in his rookie season. He held receivers to short yards per catch with neutral value in his catch rate.
S Marcus Williams
Over four seasons, Williams has 246 tackles, 30 defended passes, and 13 defended passes. He’s a beast in run support, but Williams did give up multiple long plays in coverage last year.
S Malcolm Jenkins
In his first year back with New Orleans, Jenkins played well against the run, which was the case over his six seasons in Philadelphia. He likes to keep receivers in front of him, leading to low yards per catch. Jenkins is a league-average player.
Fantasy Defense Snapshot
New Orleans has three glaring issues on defense – defensive tackle, outside linebacker, and left cornerback. They might get away with the defensive lineman, but the other two positions will get exposed by good teams. The Saints put pressure on the quarterback and slow down the run. Both Payton Turner and Pete Werner add playmaking to the defense. New Orleans needs Marshon Lattimore to play much better in coverage this year. In fantasy land, this defense should rank as a low-end DST1.
More Fantasy Team Outlooks:
Comments
Post a Comment