New on Sports Illustrated: MLB 2020 Postseason Betting Primer - How Should Bettors Target Playoff Baseball?
SI Gambling analyst Ben Heisler runs through every team’s Wild Card, AL/NL Pennant, and World Series futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
After
surviving multiple missteps along the way, we have officially made it to the Major League Baseball playoffs. With an expanded postseason featuring 16 teams and a best-of-three Wild Card series in the higher seed’s ballpark, let’s take a look at the upcoming matchups as well as the futures betting options to win the World Series at DraftKings Sportsbook.SI Fantasy PRO members get real-time alerts to betting plays and information from SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo (77-57 in MLB ATS in 2020), as well as access to in-depth daily fantasy baseball breakdowns from SI Fantasy's Steve Renner.
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World Series Predictions: Who's Going to Win It All?
American League
Houston Astros (6) @ Minnesota Twins (3)
Series Odds: HOU +136 | MIN -167
AL League Winner Odds: HOU +1100 | MIN +550
World Series Odds: HOU +2500 | MIN +1000
At least in 2020, on paper, this looks like a very difficult matchup for Houston. The Twins finished as AL Central champs with a 36-24 record, the third best run-differential in the American League (+54) and the highest home winning percentage at home (24-7, 77.4%)
Meanwhile, Houston comes in looking like a team that didn't benefit from banging on trash cans and any sort of technological advantage in the 60-game regular season sample. They finished under .500 for the first time since 2014, and finished with the second-worst road record (9-23) in the AL.
PREDICTION: The Twins break their longtime playoff drought and win their first playoff series since 1991 when they went on to win the World Series.
BET: Twins -167
Chicago White Sox (7) @ Oakland Athletics (2)
Series Odds: CHW -106 | OAK -117
AL League Winner Odds: CHW +650 | OAK +500
World Series Odds: CHW +1500 | OAK +1000
After being the darlings of baseball for much of the season, the young White Sox were a mess down the stretch; finishing 2-8 in their last 10 games and giving up their division lead to both Minnesota and Cleveland. Their offense still finished second in the American League in runs scored, trailing only the New York Yankees.
The Athletics did what they usually do and were amongst the most consistent teams all through the 60-game season. Matt Olson led the team in HR (14) and RBI (42, but also hit .195 with an on-base percentage of .210. Chris Bassitt provided stability at the top of the rotation with a sparking 2.29 ERA in 63 IP, but the rest of the rotation never really got it going to their talent level. The bullpen is exceptional led by closer Liam Hendricks who saved 14 games.
PREDICTION: All it takes is one start to get the White Sox back on track, and they'll be facing young left-hander Jesus Luzardo in Game 1. The Sox on the season are 14-0 against left-handed starting pitching and if they get hot, they can turn things up quick.
BET: White Sox -106
Toronto Blue Jays (8) @ Tampa Bay Rays (1)
Series Odds: TOR +180 | TB -225
AL League Winner Odds: TOR +1500 | TB +300
World Series Odds: TOR +3500 | TB +600
The Blue Jays snagged the final AL playoff spot despite finishing with an expected W/L of 28-32 and a -10 run differential. They did play their division rival Rays tough throughout the season, finishing 4-6 with a +4 run differential in the process.
As for Tampa, they finished with the second best record in baseball behind the Dodgers, and never
PREDICTION: The Rays win the series easily behind the strength of a complete team who went 14-6 in one-run games. Unfortunately, they fall to the winner of Cleveland/New York in the ALDS round.
BET: Pass. Rays -225 in a best-of-three series isn't a return on value I have interest in.
New York Yankees (5) @ Cleveland Indians (4)
Series Odds: NYY -121 | CLE +100
AL League Winner Odds: NYY +280 | CLE +650
World Series Odds: NYY +600 | CLE +1500
This Wild Card series is the dandy of them all. The Yankees entered the season as the favorite in the American League to take on the Dodgers in the World Series, and after a strong start, they nearly played themselves out of the playoffs entirely in early September losing five in a row and seven of eight. Also, if you had Luke Voit as your top prop bet to be the home run leader (22), you probably turned a nice profit at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gerrit Cole churned out another terrific season along with Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ, but the Indians' starting rotation may have even more firepower. Shane Bieber led the Majors in ERA (1.63) in 77.1 IP this season, allowing 14 ER all season and a WHIP of 0.87. If he can outduel Cole at home in Game 1, the Indians may pounce quickly and shake the confidence of the Bronx Bombers, knowing they still have to face Carlos Carrasco in Game 2.
PREDICTION: After finishing 8-2 in their last 10 games. I think the Indians stay hot in the playoffs and knock out the favorite Yankees before upsetting the Rays in the Divisional Round. The Indians' offense was not impressive other than Jose Ramirez, but I think their pitching carries them through all the way to the World Series before losing to the National League Champs.
BET: Indians +100 (Wild Card) | Indians +650 (American League)
Cincinnati Reds (7) @ Atlanta Braves (2)
Series Odds: CIN +113 | ATL -137
NL League Winner Odds: CIN +1200 | ATL +550
World Series Odds: CIN +2800| ATL +1100
PREDICTION: Another upset looms in this "March Madness" style MLB bracket as the Reds terrific pitching threesome of Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray limit the Braves' powerful offense in Atlanta. The Reds will make it a series in the divisional round, but will fall just short there.
BET: Reds +113
Miami Marlins (6) @ Chicago Cubs (3)
Series Odds: MIA +136 | CHC -167
NL League Winner Odds: MIA +1500 | CHC +700
World Series Odds: MIA +3300 | CHC +1500
Earlier in the piece, I said that the White Sox were the darlings of baseball. We'd be mistaken, however, if we didn't throw some bouquets at the feat of the Miami Marlins for sneaking into the postseason. The Marlins were projected to finish as the worst team in the National League this year, but their young pitching staff led by Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcantara and Sixto Sanchez helped pave the way for the Marlins to make their way into October (or at least late-September baseball).
As for Chicago, after starting 13-3 to begin the season, the Cubs' offense completely sputtered in September and went 21-23 the rest of the way. If not for a 25-run outburst against the White Sox in the final weekend of the season, Chicago's offense would have scored just 79 runs over the final month of the year.
That final series mattered for their confidence, as Kris Bryant returned from an oblique injury to hit two home runs against their crosstown rivals and helped get the team's confidence back on track.
PREDICTION: The Marlins struggle to put the ball in play and will chase after the likes of Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks who have showcased pinpoint control all season. With this likely being the "last dance" of the 2016 World Series core players, I think the Cubs take care of business against Miami, play a very competitive series vs the Reds in the NLDS, and ultimately fall in the NLCS to the Dodgers.
BET: Cubs -167
St. Louis Cardinals (5) @ San Diego Padres (2)
Series Odds: STL +172 | SD -215
NL League Winner Odds: STL +1400 | SD +500
World Series Odds: STL +3300 | SD +1000
After several members of the Cardinals tested positive for COVID-19, many thought the Cardinals were sunk. They had to play 32 games in September but still found a way to hang on and get themselves into the postseason. The key for St. Louis will be SP Jack Flaherty, and whether they'll unleash the shackles tied to his right arm for October. Flaherty never threw more than 5 IP once since August 19th, and was only dominant once against the doormat of the division in Pittsburgh.
As for the Padres, if not for the juggernaut Dodgers, they would have been the top-seed in the National League, finishing 37-23 with a +84 run differential, good for second best in the NL. They also finished a game BELOW their expected W/L record, implying that they can be even better than what they played up to. They got terrific seasons from both Sach Davies and Dinelson Limet despite the regression of Chris Paddack, and the addition of Mike Clevinger at the trade deadline will pay dividends in the postseason.
PREDICTION: The terrific balance San Diego carries from both the hitting and pitching side will help propel the Padres to an easy series win in the Wild Card round against a Cardinals team that will soon run out of gas. San Diego is insanely talented and are built to win, but I think the playoff-experienced Dodgers present themselves to be too tough of an opponent to move past the NLDS.
BET: Pass at -215 for Wild Card. I think the current market is a bit inflated for Padres bets, and would consider waiting until their series with the Dodgers to jump on-board.
Milwaukee Brewers (8) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
Series Odds: MIL +242 | LAD -315
NL League Winner Odds: MIL +1500 | LAD +130
World Series Odds: HOU +3300 | LAD: +350
The Brewers flat-out could not hit in 2020. They got double-digit home run contributions from Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura, but outside of those two guys, it was an unmitigated disaster at the plate. The Brewers do have two outstanding right-handers at the top of their rotation in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, but L.A. hit right-handers well all year with an OPS of .837, nearly .58 points higher than they did against lefties.
The Dodgers had five different players hit 10+ home runs in 2020 and are as deep in their lineup as any team in baseball.
PREDICTION: The Brewers for the second consecutive year snuck into the postseason despite a negative run differential. It's baseball, so anything can happen, but I think the Dodgers take care of Milwaukee, win a difficult matchup with their divisional rival Padres, and ultimately put the Cubs away in the NLCS before facing the red-hot Cleveland Indians in the World Series. The Astros cheated the Dodgers out of a World Series in 2017. This year, the Dodgers put the final pieces together and take care of business in October.
BET: Dodgers World Series +350
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