New on Sports Illustrated: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Preview

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The Packers are a double-digit favorite over the lowly Lions with a first-round bye in their sight. Should you lay the points with Green Bay?

Detroit hosts Green Bay as part of the early NFL Week 17 betting action. This NFC North showdown is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 29, 2019, at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. The Packers wrapped up the division title last week and still have a shot at first overall in the NFC standings. The Lions, meanwhile, are looking to play spoilers here.

Spread: Packers -12.5 (-110) | Lions +12.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Packers (-650) | Lions (+475)

Game Total: OVER 43.5 (-110) | UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Green Bay Packers’ Recent Form

Winning a fourth straight contest, Green Bay rolled over the Vikings 23-10 in Minnesota during the Week 16 Monday Night Football fight. As was the case during two previous home wins over Chicago (21-13) and Washington (20-15), the Packers defense led the way. Green Bay owns the NFC North division title and now looks to earn a playoff bye.

· Betting Record: SU 12-3 | ATS 10-5 | O/U 6-9

· Offense: 14, scoring 23.5 points per game

· Defense: Ninth, allowing 19.5 points per game

· Turnover Rank: Third with a +12 differential

Detroit Lions’ Recent Form

Heading in the opposite direction, Detroit lost 27-17 to the Broncos in Denver last week. The Lions have dropped eight straight and 11 of the last 12 games. Prior to visiting Mile High Country, Detroit lost 38-27 to Tampa at home and 20-7 to the Vikings in Minnesota. Riding out an injury-plagued season, the Lions are limping to the finish line.

· Betting Record: SU 3-11-1 | ATS 5-10 | O/U 10-5

· Offense: 20, scoring 21.4 points per game

· Defense: 26, allowing 26.7 points per game

· Turnover Rank: 21st with a -5 differential

Packers vs. Lions Playoff Scenarios: What’s at Stake?

With the NFC North championship safely secured, Green Bay can finish anywhere from first to third in the playoff standings. The Packers finish first in the NFC with a win over Detroit and a loss by San Francisco in Seattle. If the Packers and 49ers both win, San Francisco is the top seed and the Packers earn a first-round bye as the second seed.

Worst-case scenario, Green Bay falls to third with a loss to the Lions and a win by New Orleans over the Panthers in Carolina. In that instance, the Packers would host the Vikings at Lambeau Field during the NFC Wild Card round next week. With a loss, plus a Washington victory in Dallas, Detroit will secure the second pick in the 2020 NFL draft.

Green Bay vs. Detroit Recent History – Week 6 Rematch

Snapping a four-game losing streak versus Detroit, Green Bay won the first meeting 23-22 back in Week 6. Lions DE Trey Flowers was flagged for two questionable “illegal hands to the face” penalties in the fourth quarter. Both penalties extended Green Bay drives that resulted in a TD and the game-winning field goal as time expired. Overall, the Packers are 5-2 SU and ATS on the road while Detroit is 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS at home this season.

Injury Update: Packers Are Healthy - Lions Are Not

Considering we have hit Week 17, the end of a long grueling run, Green Bay enters this contest in fairly decent shape. Backup running back Jamaal Williams (shoulder) was injured last week in Minnesota and is questionable. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are all injury-free and will be a handful for the Lions struggling defense.

While they impact every team, injuries have sunk the Lions season. Beyond losing Stafford, Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson on offense, the Detroit defense has taken its share of hits as well. After missing eight weeks with a knee injury, starting running back Kerryon Johnson returned last week and gained 42 rushing yards on 10 carries.

Packers Have Dropped Two Straight Ford Field

Detroit aims for a third straight win over Green Bay at Ford Field. The Lions posted a 31-23 Week 5 win last season and 35-11 Week 17 victory two years ago. The stakes in those contests were not as high as they are here. Both teams have followed a “win two, lose two” trend during the last eight meetings in Detroit. The Lions won the last two, so a Packers victory would continue that trend.

Detroit vs. Green Bay Final Thoughts and Pick

Seattle vs. San Francisco has been flexed to the Sunday Night Football prime-time slot. Green Bay and New Orleans play early games on Sunday, so both teams will be fully focused. The monster point spread speaks volumes to how important this game is to Green Bay. Matthew Stafford started and played well in the Week 6 game. David Blough starts here and faces a surging Packers defense.

Blough has been in steady decline since he lit up the Bears during the first quarter of his first start in Week 13. Over his last three starts, the Lions rookie QB has tossed two TDs, four INTs and has been sacked 11 times. Green Bay sacked Kirk Cousins five times last week and Blough has not been good when facing pressure. Since a victory ensures the Packers two weeks of rest, expect Green Bay to put the pedal to the metal for most of this match.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -12.5

Season Record: 34-52-2

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